というNBER論文が上がっている。原題は「Systemic Risk and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Evaluation」で、著者はStefano Giglio(シカゴ大)、Bryan T. Kelly(同)、Seth Pruitt(FRB)。 This article evaluates a large collection of systemic risk measures based on their ability to predict macroeconomic downturns. We evaluate 19 measures of systemic risk in the US and Europe spanning several decades. We propose dimension reduction estimators